书名::[[成长的边界]]

引语

他的目光总是盯着整个庄园，而不是庄园的某一部门……于是尼古拉的农业经营也就取得最辉煌的成就。

引言 费德勒VS.老虎·伍兹

美国疾病控制与预防中心把“踢球”和“踮脚站立”列为两岁儿童生理发展的重要指标。

他理解人，也理解规则；

日后的他能拥有高超的运动天赋和强悍的手眼协调能力，都要归功于涉猎过这么多体育项目的经历。

毕竟，网球课后与朋友聊聊音乐、练习摔跤或踢足球，就是乐趣的来源之一。

但是从长远来看，较晚明确自己的努力方向丝毫没有影响他的发展。很多网球界的传奇巨星通常在三十多岁时就退役了，而他在这个年纪，依然稳居世界第一。

所谓“一万小时定律”，就是无论在哪个领域，想要提高技能水平，唯一有效的方法就是不断累积高专注度练习的时长。

刻意练习必须尽早开始，越早越好。

他们的各种身体机能愈加纯熟；他们认识到自己的能力所在以及偏好；只有在广泛涉足各项目之后，他们才能专注于一个特定项目，进行专业化的技术练习

不论在体育领域还是其他领域，这种极度专业化其实毫无必要，而正是这种虚假的必要性，构成了这个庞大、成功和偶尔才显露善意的市场机制的核心。

我们已经了解，在早期尽可能多尝试各种项目——多样化最为关键。”

那些大学毕业后就早早从事专业化工作的人，在刚毕业时确实薪水较高，但是，较晚开始专业化工作的人，他们找到的工作更适合他们自己的技能和个性，与前者在收入上的差距很快就能被弥补

当我更深入地研究这一领域时，我发现许多了不起的人物之所以能成功，不是因为他们对这些广泛的经验和兴趣弃之不顾，而是正因为有了这些广泛和经验和兴趣，他们才得以成功：

但是和当天在座的其他人一样，他也被或直白或含蓄地灌输过，改变方向是危险的。

慢慢积累那些持续性的知识，才是最好的学习之道，即使这意味着在即时测验中表现不佳。也就是说，最有用的学习方法看似效率低下，也像是会落后于人。

它影响的不仅仅是个人，还是整个系统，每个小小的专业化组织都是“只见树木，不见森林”，就像在一个巨大的拼图中，自己能看到的这一块越来越小。

过度的专业化，会导致全体性的悲剧，即使每个个体的选择都是最理智的。

在追求创新的路上，日趋严重的专业化造成的结果是“永不交集的平行沟渠”。每个人都在埋头挖自己的沟，越挖越深，但是鲜有挖沟者站上来看看旁边的沟，即使能解决自己问题的人就在旁边。

先拓展广度，晚一些再进行深度挖掘，了解这样做的优点后，我重新认识了自己，也重新认识了世界。

在一个鼓励甚至强烈需要“超专业化”的世界，我们现在所面临的挑战是，如何维护广度学习、多样化经验、跨学科思考和晚一步专业化带来的利益和优势。

谷仓效应，指企业内部因缺少沟通，部门间各自为政，像一个个谷仓独立进出，只有垂直的指挥系统，没有水平的协同机制，无法正常运作。

第1章 “赢在起跑线” 的教育狂潮

证明抢先开始刻意练习是成功的关键——“实际上，在任何一件对你来说非常重要的事情上，这个原理都适用”。

他时常发现经验根本帮不上忙。更糟糕的是，经验带来的常常不是技巧，而是自信。

有些领域涉及人类行为，且没有重复而清晰的模式，反复练习并不意味着学习。国际象棋、高尔夫和灭火只不过是例外，而不是规律。

专家们会因为有经验而变得更好吗？

卡尼曼和克莱恩一致认为，经验能否带来专业知识和技能，完全取决于所在的领域。专业化的练习可以培养更好的国际象棋选手、桥牌选手和消防员，但是在预测金融或政治趋势，或者预测员工或病人表现时却帮不上忙。

莫拉维克悖论”：机器和人类各自的优势和劣势时常处于对立状态。

人类可以去做他们擅长的任何事情，而不再把练习数年所培养出的模式辨认水平当作先决条件。

把战术外包——人类专业棋手所掌握的技能当中，战术是最容易被替代的，也是他和波尔加天才三姐妹通过多年训练才习得的技能。

通过反复练习国际象棋的各种棋局模式，大师们掌握了蔡司和西蒙所说的“组块法则”。他们不是在记每个单独的兵、象、车的布置，而是根据熟悉的模式，把棋局分成一个个有意义的小组块。大量的模式可以让专业棋手根据经验快速评估局势，这也是卡斯帕罗夫所说的特级大师在几秒钟之内就能做出反应的原因。

组块法则看似神奇，但它是实实在在地植根于大量的反复练习。

他们不仅是简单刻板地重复。他们的成功和波尔加姐妹一样，依靠的是重复的结构和组块，这也是波尔加的技能会被电脑替代的准确原因。

一项任务越是转向拥有宏观战略的开放世界，人类要做的工作就越多。

我们人类在与电脑单打独斗时多少有些势单力薄，但是我们每个人对电脑都有一些大概的应对想法，把这些主意结合到一起，就有了适应性。这似乎就是胜利的诀窍。

作为人类，我们最大的优势正好就是过度专业化的对立面——广泛融合各类知识的能力。

把充满恶意的诡谲世界误以为善意友好，是非常危险的。

施瓦茨的论文副标题是《如何教人不去发现规律》，也就是说，通过提供极少的解决方案，对重复的短期成功给予奖励，就能达成这一目的。

这个世界的大部分都是“火星网球”。虽然你能看见选手们拿着网球和球拍出现在球场上，但是没有人告知他们比赛规则。你可以推导规则，但是规则也会悄无声息地改变——当然也不会通知你。

我们一直在利用这些错误的故事。老虎·伍兹和波尔加姐妹的故事，给人们留下了错误的印象——人类学习技能的环境是极其友好的。

想要避免“认知壁垒”的出现，埃里克·戴恩的建议和“一万小时定律”的思路南辕北辙：在特定的某一领域中去尝试应对各种完全不同的挑战，之后的研究者这样描述——坚持“把一只脚踏出你的世界”。

利用外部经验和类比方法，阻断了那些已经不再有用的已知解决方案的倾向。他们的技巧是，避免那些已经非常熟悉的老模式。在这个邪恶的世界里，挑战模糊不清，规则不甚严格，通才可以成为生活的黑客。

第2章 抽象思维与概念推理

弗林说：“与先人相比，我们的智力优势可以从摇篮一直保持到坟墓。”

弗林效应——在20世纪，每一代新出生的人在智商测试中的分数都有所增加——现在已经在30多个国家得到了证实。

在没有任何线索和提示的情况下，如今的孩子发现规律和模式的能力更强了。

改变公民的工作是否也会改变他们的想法。

现代化进程越深入，一个人就越有可能掌握“形状”这一抽象概念，并能够按三角形、矩形和圆形来分组，即使他们没有接受过正式教育，也不知道这些形状的名字。

再多的劝哄、解释或者实例说明，都无法让偏远村庄的村民们使用日常生活之外的推理——他们的推理都是基于生活的具体实践。

用一个通俗的比喻来说，就是前现代化的人只见树木，不见森林，而现代化社会的人只见森林，不见树木。

他们现代化的程度越高，抽象思维就越强大，就越少依赖他们对世界的具体经验来作为参照点。

我们理解现实，不是依靠自己的直接经验，而是通过分层和分类，用抽象概念的不同层级来理解信息之间的关系。

当你在计算机上下载文件时，进度条显示着下载的进度，进度条就是大量抽象意义的集中体现，这些抽象意义从它们的起源——创建它的编程语言是二进制代码的表示，也就是计算机使用的1和0——到心理作用，进度条是一种时间的视觉投射，通过估算大量潜在活动的进度，为使用者提供内心的平静。

现代社会的工作需要知识的传递：把知识应用于新情境和不同领域的能力。为了适应不断攀升的复杂性，满足对创造新模式的需求，我们最基本的思维过程已经发生了变化，而不再仅仅依赖于熟悉的模式。我们的概念分类法为知识相通提供了框架，让其变得可行而灵活。

学者在针对六个工业化国家的数千名成年人的研究中发现，需要自助解决问题和非重复性挑战的现代工作，与认知灵活性相关。

接触现代化的世界，让我们更好地适应了世界的复杂性，这就是认知灵活性的表现，也深入地影响了我们智力世界的广度。

自由切换的能力——从一个类别转到另一类别——就是‘抽象思维’最重要的特点之一。

弗林的结论是：“没有任何迹象表明，哪个专业试图拓展自己的知识版图，大家都在发展自己领域狭隘的核心竞争力。”

每个人都需要跨学科思考的思维习惯。

教授们太过急于分享他们最喜欢的事实，而这些事实就来源于他们经年累月越来越狭隘的研究。

学生们在被灌输应该去思考什么之前，更应该学会如何去思考。

华盛顿大学开设了一门课程，名叫“辨别屁话”（用死板的教学语言来说：课程编号INFO 198/BIOL
106B），这门课主要教授广义的基本原则，用来理解跨学科的世界，批判性地评估每天获取信息的渠道。

“当面临一项巨大而复杂的任务时，计算思维是用抽象和分解的方法来解决，”她写道，“是为问题选择一种适当的呈现方式。”

每个人都忙着做研究，但是没人有时间停下来想想他们做研究的方法。

思考方式比详细的先验知识更加重要。

一个挑战越是受限、越是重复，它就越有可能被迫自动化；而那些能够从一个问题或者一个领域中获取概念性知识，并且把它应用到一个全新问题或领域的人，将会获得巨大的回报。

第3章 可遇不可毁的创造力

在教堂内，观众是不允许鼓掌的，所以在最后一个音符之后，观众们只能用咳嗽、清嗓子、摩擦地面和擤鼻涕的方式来表达自己的热爱之情。

尽早选择、专注精准、从不犹豫。

对于表现优秀的人来说，样本测试的过程并非偶然，而是自我发展的重要组成部分——但对于那些急于赢在起跑线的人来说，这个过程他们恨不得赶紧跳过。

那些走向成功的学生只是在确定了他们想专注学习的某样乐器之后才开始增加训练量，原因无外乎两个：他们更擅长这种乐器，或者他们只是更喜欢这种乐器。这样看来，是乐器在驱使着练习，而非相反。

把精力分配给不同乐器仍旧很重要。被（学校）认为水平优秀且超群的孩子就是那些把精力更为平均地分配给三种乐器的学生。”而那些水平较低的学生更愿意把全部时间都花在他们所选择的第一件乐器上，就好像他们不能丢掉自己“赢在起跑线”的优势一样

几乎所有水平更高的学生都至少演奏过三种乐器，这个比例远远高于水平较低的学生，超过一半的学生演奏过四种或五种乐器。

严格的刻意练习派认为，只有有意识地专注于纠正错误，才算是有用的训练。

即兴大师们的学习方法与婴儿别无二致：全力投入并开始模仿，先即兴发挥，随后再学习正式的规则。

训练的广度预示着转型的广度。也就是说，学习者学到的背景内容越多，其创造的抽象模型就越多，他们对特定具体例子的依赖就越少。这样一来，学习者可以更好地把自己的知识应用在前所未见的情形——这就是创造力的核心。

创造力可能是很难培养的，但是打压创造力却很容易

别人在指板上胡乱摸索好几年的东西，我在两分钟内就可以弹出来，因为我也经历过胡乱摸索的那个过程。你不知道什么是对的，什么是错的。你脑子里没有这种概念，只是想找到一个解决问题的方法，而在我活了五十载光阴之后，这些东西才开始慢慢积累。这是一个缓慢的过程，但与此同时，这也是一种学习的方式。”

第4章 学习，快与慢

老师并没有让学生去解决困惑，而是经常以给出线索的方式回应学生的恳求——把“建立联系”的提问变成了“使用过程”的提问。

学生们试着把自己并不能理解的概念问题转化成一个流程，他们只要照做就可以。

只有15%的学生能够用广义的概念化推理——如果你把一样东西分成5份，每一份肯定比分成8份后要大。每个能这样想的同学都得到了正确答案。

科内尔解释了什么叫“合意难度”——在学习过程中，总会遇到一些阻碍，从短期来看，这些阻碍让学习更有挑战性，让学习进程更慢，也让学习者垂头丧气；但是从长远来看，是有益处的。

梅特卡夫和同事们反复展示了一种“矫枉过正现象”。学习者对自己的错误答案越有信心，当他们随后学到正确答案时，正确的信息就越牢固。容忍大错误可以创造最好的学习机会。②

“带有提示的训练无法产出任何持久的学习成果。”

大费周章地在脑海中检索信息可以让大脑为后续的学习做好准备，即使检索不太成功也没关系。这种努力是真实的，也是真正有效的。“就像在生活中，”科内尔和他的团队总结道，“检索就是生活之旅的全部。”

所谓“间隔期”，顾名思义，就是在学习同样内容时，特意把每次练习的时间隔开。你可以称之为穿插在许多次“刻意练习”中的“刻意不练习”。

努力调动大脑比简单重复要重要得多。

当你在自我测试时，如果你表现得过于优异，一个简单的办法就是隔上一段时间后再做同样的测试，这时的测试对你来说难度会加大。在学习过程中垂头丧气，这不代表你没有学习；相反，如果你感到过程很轻松，这才是没有学习。

最好的学习之路“道阻且长”，不仅进度缓慢，而且在眼下也可能表现不佳，而这些困难正是为了让人在之后表现得更好。

那些让学生们短期痛苦但是长远获益的教授，正是通过“建立联系”的提问方式实现了“深度学习”过程。这些教授“扩展了课程内容，让学生更加深刻地理解了教学材料”。但这种做法让课程难度更大，学生也觉得更受打击

纵观整个学习过程，最重要的一点是，教师和学生一定要避免把眼下的表现当作学习本身。在学习过程中，一次考试的好成绩可以说明对知识的掌握，但是学生和老师都必须警惕，这样的成绩也意味着快速但转瞬即逝的进步。”

想灵活地掌握知识，必须要在各种不同的情境下学习，这种方法被称为变化练习或混合练习，或者按研究者的说法，叫“交叉练习”。

那些封闭练习的学生通过不断地重复，学会的是单一类型问题的解决流程。而交叉练习的学生学会的是如何区分不同类型的问题。

事实证明，学习的感觉是建立在眼前可见的进步上，而深度学习则不会带来这种感觉。科内尔告诉我：“当你的直觉告诉你这是封闭练习时，你就应该尝试交叉练习。”

不管面对的是体力任务还是脑力任务，交叉练习提高的是匹配正确解决策略的能力。这也是专家解决问题的标志。

像测试和隔离期这样的“合意难度”，可以让知识长久地停留在脑海中，这些知识会变得持久。而像建立联系和交叉练习这样的“合意难度”，可以让知识更加灵活，当学习者面对着训练中从未出现过的问题时，这种灵活性大有裨益。

教会孩子早点阅读不是长期优势；教孩子如何在上下文寻找线索并联系在一起，从而理解阅读材料，这才是长期优势

深度学习意味着缓慢学习。“赢在起跑线”的狂热辜负了学习者的目标追求。

当某种知识的结构已经足够灵活，可以将其有效应用到新领域或者前所未有的新场景时，这种情形就叫作“远迁移”。

第5章 跳出经验外，思在新境中

每次开普勒遇到困难时，他的脑海中总会迸发出一系列的新类比。不仅是光、热、气味、旋涡和船夫，他还想到了光学透镜、天平、扫帚、磁铁、磁力扫帚、注视着人群的演说家等，不一而足。他对每个类比都是无情地刨根问底，每一次都能想到新的问题。

“我特别热爱类比这种方法，”开普勒写道，“类比是我最忠实的大师，它熟悉大自然的所有秘密……我们应该好好利用这种方法。”

根特纳可能是全世界最著名的类比思考专家。当我们面对表面看起来似乎毫无关联的各种领域或场景，想发掘其中概念上的相似性，这就需要深度的类比思考。它是解决棘手问题的强大工

“在我看来，”根特纳告诉我，“进行关联性思考，是我们人类能主宰地球的原因之一。对于其他物种来说，建立联系是十分困难的。”面对着新事物，类比思考让我们把它们变得熟悉；面对已经熟悉的事物，类比思考赋予我们重新审视这些事物的新角度，进而得以推理那些陌生环境中出现的新问题。它还能让我们理解自己根本看不见的东西。

“在现在的生活中，”根特纳告诉我，“我们需要想起那些具备抽象相似性或者关系上相似的东西。你越想拥有创造力，这一点就越重要。”

如果你需要较大的力量来达到某种目的，但是又被禁止直接使用这种力量时，从不同角度同时使用较小的力量也可以实现目标

在一个复杂多变的世界里，依靠单一领域的经验不仅有局限性，而且可能是灾难性的。

当我们狭隘地根据眼前某个特定事物的细节做出判断时，就会采用“内部视角”。

“外部视角”从不同方面探索类比与当前问题的深层面的结构相似性。决策者常常专注于发现事物表面特征，而“外部视角”是非常反直觉的，因为它要求决策者忽略眼下事物的表面特征，而是着眼外部，寻找结构上相似的类比。“外部视角”需要把思维模式从狭隘调整到宽广

从大量不同领域的类比开始，就像开普勒那样，最终会自然获得“外部视角”，从而提升决策水平。

心理学家已经反复展示过，一个人考量的内部细节越多，其做出的判断就越极端。

网飞公司（Netflix）在改进“向观众推荐”这一算法时，也得到了类似的结论。把电影的特征逐一解析来发现观众的爱好，其实是非常复杂的，而且准确性还不如把一人和有相似观影历史的其他用户做类比。网飞的算法不再预测你可能喜欢什么，而是检视你是什么样的人，其复杂性就在于此。

但是，产生新的想法或是面对具有极强不确定性的新问题时，情况完全不同。身处变化叵测的世界里，在直觉主宰你的决定之前，先去评估一系列的选择，这才是上计。

越是与本案例相去甚远的类比，越有利于创意的产生。

好消息是，从直觉的“内部视角”转换到“外部视角”进行类比很容易

他们都担心自己的学生会掉队，所以迫不及待地让学生开始专业化学习，而不是选择用根特纳所说的“各种基本领域”的知识来武装自己，但正是这些知识可以培养出类比思维和概念联系，进而帮助学生们把眼下的问题进行分类。这也是最擅长解决问题的人的专有才能。

问题描述得好，就已经解决了一半的问题了。”

当获得了意想不到的发现时，这些优秀的实验室没有假设当前的理论就是正确的，观察也没有就此打住，而是把意想不到的发现当作新的冒险机会——类比思维就是他们的“荒野求生指南”。

“当实验室的所有成员掌握的知识都一样时，问题一出现，一群想法相近的人跟单独的一个人没有区别，他们无法给出更多的类比。”邓巴这样总结道。

第6章 过于坚持，也有问题

每一次他都全心全意地投入和热爱，随后再同样全心全意地迅速退出。

尽管上述几位名人都起步较晚，但是他们都获得了成功。要找出起步晚但能克服困难而取得成就的优秀人才的例子很容易。他们没有因为起步晚而成为例外，而起步晚也没有给他们带来不利影响，反而成了他们最终成功的一部分。

“匹配质量”是一个经济学术语，经济学家用它来描述一个人的工作和其本身（包括能力和倾向）的匹配程度。

利用教育，个人可以测试成长样本，即找到自己的角色以及自己适合的专业领域。

匹配质量得到提升……比技能的损失更加重要。”也就是说，了解自己比了解技能更重要。探索不仅仅是教育中异想天开的奢侈，它亦是核心的益处。

但事实上，你在转行之后却拥有了更高的增长效率。

列维特认为，自己最重要的一项技能就是“愿意放弃”一个项目或者一整个研究领域，从而找到自己更为适合的匹配。

语言智商测试和恒毅力测试两者都可以预测拼写者在比赛中的成绩，但是两者是分开起作用的。如果既拥有超高的语言智商，又拥有恒毅力，这是最好的，但是，缺乏恒毅力的拼写者可以用较高的语言智商来弥补，而语言智商略低的拼写者可以用恒毅力来挽救。

值得表扬的是，达克沃斯和她的合著者指出了研究中的问题——通过高度预选而获得的实验的群体，“我们必然限制了研究的外部效度”。

面对困难，努力坚持，这是任何一个想走得长远的旅行者的竞争优势，但是戈丁认为，知道什么时候该放弃是一个巨大的战略优势，每个人在开始冒险之前，都应该列举一下在哪种情况下自己需要放弃。戈丁说，重要的是要适应现实——转行是只因缺乏毅力，还是敏锐地察觉到有更好的匹配在等你。

美国陆军得到了一个惨痛的教训：问题不是出在钱上，而是出在匹配上。

面对更广阔的职业选择，一开始就能找到高匹配质量的目标，这无疑是一个巨大的挑战，而为了坚持而坚持，就会变成阻碍。

凡·高是匹配质量最优化的典型，是罗伯特·米勒“多臂强盗过程”的真人版。他用疯狂的强度测试各种选项，最大限度地尽快获取他是否适应这一领域的信号，然后再跳转到其他领域，不断地复制这种做法，直到他曲折地走到一个别人从未到过的领域，一个只有他自己擅长的领域。

问题的关键是：一些出乎意料的经历带来了意想不到的新目标，或者发掘了他们以往未被发现的才能。

讨论“晚一步专业化”其实是他们宣泄焦虑的一种方式，他们因为自己做过、学习过的东西而充满感激，却又因为花时间做过、学习过这些东西而充满焦虑。

如果认为兴趣的改变，或者关注点的重新调整是缺陷和竞争劣势，这就陷入了简单的、一刀切式的“老虎·伍兹式”故事了：选中了就得坚持下去，越早越好。

第7章 发掘自身更多可能

因为积累了多种多样的经验，所以出现了一些“无法定义的消化过程”。赫塞尔本告诉我：“我没有意识到自己正在为什么事情做准备，我不是打定主意要成为一个领导者，我只是通过做当时需要做的事情来学习。”

“你必须提着一个大篮子才能把东西带回家。”她今天还在重复这句话，意思是一个思想保持开放的人能够从每一次新的经历中获得一些新东西。

他们都曾经被告知，离开自己最初的工作有非常大的风险。但其实我们都应该理解，这没什么好奇怪的，这是正常现象。

“黑马”们寻找着提升匹配质量的机会。“他们不会东张西望然后说：‘噢，我可能落后了，这些人都入行比我早，他们的年龄都比我小，会的东西又比我多，’”奥加斯告诉我，“他们关注的是：‘在当下，这就是我的角色，这些是我的动力，这些是我发现的自己喜欢做的事情，这些是我愿意学习的东西，同时它们是我的机会。那么眼下哪个是最适合我的匹配呢？也许从现在起的一年之后，我会转行，因为我发现了更好的东西。’”

当我们对自己更加了解时，再回过头去审视那些曾经觉得安全、稳定的职业目标，看法可能会大有不同，曾经的安稳工作用达尔文的形容词就是“荒唐愚蠢”。我们对于工作和生活的偏好不会一直保持不变，因为我们自身是一直在变化中的。

从青少年变成老年人，我们意识到自己的欲望和动机在过去的日子里有了大幅度的变化（比如看看你以前的发型），但是我们又相信，这些欲望和动机在未来不会有太大变化。用吉尔伯特的话说，事情明明还在进行中，却声称已经完成了。

此时此刻的你是转瞬即逝的，就好像之前每一个瞬间的你。这似乎是最意外的结果，但是这也是证据最充分的结果。

人格最重大的变化发生在18~30岁之前，所以，早早就开始专业化，其实是在为一个尚不存在的人格预测匹配质量。这样做可能有用，但是也可能效果更糟。而且，人格变化的速度虽然会减慢，但是在任何年龄段都不会停止。有时候，其变化只是一瞬间的事。

“回顾昨天也没有用，”她说，“因为今天的我已经和昨天不一样了。

我们只有通过生活才能了解自己是谁，而不是依靠过去。

“我们需要通过实践——尝试新的活动、建立新的网络、寻找新的榜样——来发现这些可能性。”我们在实践中了解自己，而不是在理论中。

“我到底想成为怎样的人？”面对这个问题，与其盼望获得一个无比权威、不容置疑的先验答案，研究人员的结论是：不如自己当自己的研究者，问自己一些能回答的简单一点的问题——“面对着那么多可能的自我，我应该选择哪个自我开始探索？我怎么样才能实现这种探索？”先去接近可能的自己。⑤比起庞大的计划，我们应该选择能够更快上手的实验。“先测试，再学习，”伊贝拉告诉我，“而不是先计划，再实践。”

与其先设定目标再工作，不如从有希望的环境开始工作。这是成功人士的最真实经历。

“当我看到我在做什么时，我才知道自己是谁。”

除非去尝试，否则一个人不会知道自己能做什么。想要找到自己的才能，答案就是去尝试。”

第8章 局外人的优势

宾汉姆把这种思维方式叫作“请来局外人”：远离那些围绕着问题本身的专门训练，从八竿子打不着的其他经验中寻找答案。历史中充斥着用这种方法改变世界的例子。

定势效应，这是一个心理学术语，它描述的是：问题的解决者总是倾向于使用那些已经熟悉的方法，即使有更好的办法在眼前，他们也不会选择。

创新中心的模式之所以起作用，部分原因就是，现在的专家们越来越狭隘，越来越过度专业化，而所谓的“圈子”就像俄罗斯套娃。

我们直觉上认为，只有超专业化的专家才能推动现代创新，但是日益狭隘的专业化实际上为局外人创造了新的机会。

知识就像一把双刃剑，它让你能够完成一些事情，但同时也蒙蔽了你——其他的事情你也可以做到。”

想要创造性地解决问题，关键是请那些使用不同视角的局外人——“只有这样，问题的‘主场’因素才不会限制解决方式。”有时候，问题的“主场”条条框框太多，局外人才是真正唯一能看到解决方式的人。

第9章 用过时的技术横向思考

横向思考是20世纪60年代出现的术语，描述的是重新思考新环境下的各种信息，包括看似毫不相干的概念或领域，给旧想法赋予新用途。横井军平所说的“过时的技术”，指的是那些已经被充分理解且非常容易获取的技术，所以也不需要什么专业知识。这种理念的核心是，把廉价而简单的技术用在别人想不到的地方。横井军平决定，既然自己不能深入地思考新技术，还不如广泛地思考如何应用旧技术。他故意离开了领域最前沿，开始“鼓捣东西”。

他建议年轻的雇员们不要单纯钻研技术，而是要思考创意——不要当工程师，去当一个创作者。“创作者知道有个东西叫半导体，但是并不需要明白半导体内部的工作原理……这些留给专家去做就行，

著名物理学家兼数学家弗里曼·戴森（Freeman Dyson）总结了这种思维：我们既需要钻研细节的青蛙，也需要富有远见的鸟。

“当信息传播得越来越广泛时，”奥德科克告诉我，“成为通才要比成为专才更容易，你可以用新的方式来组合知识。”

想要培养能够整合知识的通才和博学者不仅需要钱，还需要机遇。

随着模糊性和不确定性逐渐增加——这是系统问题的常态，广度变得愈发重要。”

在低不确定性领域，由专才组成的团队更有可能创造出有用的专利；在高不确定性领域——那些已有成效的问题本身就不太突出——拥有技术通才的团队更有可能有所建树。某个领域的不确定性越高，拥有跨领域通才成员的重要性也越高。

经验的时长无法区分漫画家的水平高低，但是经验的广度却可以。广泛涉猎各种漫画类别的创作者平均水平更高，而且更有可能实现创新。

如果一个团队拥有多元化的各类经验，它是很有影响力的，而如果一个个人拥有这种经验，那么影响力会更大。

“对于模糊状态高度宽容”“系统化思考者”“从外部领域获取额外的技术知识”“重新利用已有的资源”“在发明过程中擅于使用其他领域的类比”“用全新方法联结各种不同信息的能力”“从多个来源整合信息”“他们在各种想法之间跳来跳去”“广泛的兴趣”“和其他技术人员相比，他们读的书更多（并且更多元），其他兴趣也更广泛”“需要在不同领域进行大量的学习”“连续型创新者还需要跟自己领域之外的各类技术专家进行交流”。

从某种角度看，查尔斯·达尔文最伟大的作品是对他人先收集到的事实做了解释性汇编。”他是横向思考的整合者。

第10章 被专家愚弄

有一种特别的思考者，他们对世界的运行方式始终固执己见，即使面对着自相矛盾的事实，他们的想法依然只会更加根深蒂固，预测的水平也变得更糟糕，而不是更好，因为他们收集信息的依据是——自己心里再现的世界。

眼界狭隘的刺猬“只知道一件大事”；整合者狐狸“知道许多小事”。

伊斯特曼和他的队友一样，不管走到哪里都在不停地收集想法，再把这些想法纳入自己的知识储备中，所以，任何地方都是他的沃土。

伊斯特曼向我描述了最优秀的预测者的特征：“真正的好奇心——对所有东西都真的抱有好奇心。”

超级预测者们追求的不是统一意见；他们追求的是观点的聚合，而且是大量的观点。

最优秀的预测者们把自己的观点看作需要验证的假设。他们的目的不是说服自己的队友，以期让他们相信自己如何专业，而是鼓励队友们发现自己概念中的错误。

对科学的好奇心。不是单纯的求知欲，而是对科学的好奇心。

最优秀的预测者也拥有最积极的开放心态。他们也保持极度的好奇——不仅思考相反的观点，他们还积极地跨领域寻找相反观点。

狐狸型专家明白，大部分的因果关系是概率性的，而非确定性。这其中既有未知，也有运气的成分，即使历史明显在重演，也不会和之前的情况一模一样。

在学习环境恶劣的领域，自动反馈缺失，仅凭经验是无法提高水平的。在这种情况下，有效的思维习惯变得愈发重要，而且这种习惯是可以培养的。

用一个词来总结的话，就是——学习。有时候，它需要你把经验完全搁置在一边。

第11章 学着放下熟悉的工具

在数据不完整的情况下做决定是危险的，仅仅依靠眼前的东西做判断是多么愚蠢。

“过度学习行为”指的是专业人士一直面临相同的挑战，并且一次又一次地重复相同的反应，直到这种反应已经变成了自动行为，以至于他们甚至意识不到这是专门针对某种情况的特定工具。

在压力之下，经验丰富的专业人士常常退回到自己最熟悉的领域。

“一致性”（Congruence）是一个社会科学术语，指的是一个机构的组成部分——价值观、目标、愿景、自我概念和领导风格的文化“契合”程度。

最有效率的领导者和组织都具备广度，他们实际上是自相矛盾的。他们提出各种需求，同时又给予关照，他们既要求秩序，也要求企业家精神，甚至同时需要等级观念和个人主义。某种程度的模糊似乎无害。在决策过程中，它可以以一种独特的有价值的方式扩充企业的工具箱。

能够容忍模糊状态的思考者做出的预测最为准确

我告诉他们，当我们需要做决定时，我希望听到跟自己的决定不一样的声音，这才是一个组织真正健康的标志

实验证明，“不一致性”可以帮助人们发掘有用的线索，并且在必要时放弃传统的工具。

历史学家阿诺德·汤因比说：“没有工具是万能的，没有一把万能钥匙能打开所有的门。”有人正在以这句话为信条而努力着。他们不是紧抓一件工具不放，而是想办法收集并保护着整个工具库，在一个超专业化的世界里，他们展示出了广度的力量。

第12章 刻意的初学者

人都需要从平时的工作中解放出来，让大脑想点儿别的。

别把你的技术应用在老地方。带上你的技术去解决新的问题，或者带着你的问题去学习全新的技术。”

“初学者”（amateur）一词的起源并非贬义，而是源自拉丁语，意思是衷心热爱某项活动并为之努力的人。

诺沃肖洛夫是幸运的。他工作的环境把精神的广泛漫游视为一种竞争优势，而不是以效率的名义把精神漫游斩草除根。

他认为，问题的部分原因是年轻的科学家在学会如何思考之前就急于专业化；最终的结果是，他们自己无法产出高水平的研究成果，也没有能力识别出同事们糟糕的（或是欺骗性的）研究。

你周围的学生们，他们的手机上有关于人类的所有知识，但是他们不知道该如何整合这些知识。因为我们没有教给他们思考或推理的方法。”

人类的创造，从根本上说是“观点的进出口”。

把新技术带给旧问题，或者用旧技术解决新问题。

我们来简单回顾一下：这些在不同知识之间架起桥梁的论文，获得资助的可能性很小，登上著名期刊的可能性也很小，出版时被忽视的可能性很大，但从长远来看，在人类知识库中成为“爆款”的可能性也很大。

“我经常建议我周围的人读一读自己领域之外的东西，每天读一些。大部分人的反应是：‘好吧，不过我没有时间去读我自己领域之外的东西。’我说：‘不，你肯定有时间的，读这些重要得多。’你的世界会变得更大，也许在某个瞬间，你就能建立新的联系。”

基础科学如果放弃曲折探索，变成以效率为导向，解决人类最大挑战的可能性将越来越小。

创新的生态系统应该保持广度和低效率

“当你在拓展边界时，大部分的工作其实是在试探。这样的工作不需要高效率，”卡萨德沃尔说，“真正失去的是那些交谈和整合的时间。人们抓起午餐，拿回办公室吃。他们觉得吃午饭是低效率的，但是这个时间是迸发想法和建立联系的最佳时间。”

结语 拓展你的广度学习

拥抱广度和必要的实验之旅

创造力研究者迪恩·基思·西蒙顿发现，杰出的创造者发明的东西越多，其中没用的东西也越多，获得巨大成功的可能性也越高。

在日益需要超专业化的系统中，如何能够把握并培养广度、多样化经验和跨学科探索的力量，以及在弄清楚自己是谁之前，先决定自己应该成为怎样的人。

你应该和昨天的自己比较，而不是和那些除你之外的年轻人比较。每个人前进的速度不尽相同，所以，不要因为任何人让你自己感觉落后。也许你还不知道自己将去向何方，所以感觉落后于人也没有什么用。我们不如听从埃米尼亚·伊贝拉的建议——主动寻求匹配质量，开始计划一些人生实验。也许，你的实验也可以安排在周五晚上或是周六早晨。

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